RIYADH — Saudi Arabia is expected to see heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of the south and Makkah region in May, alongside a broader rise in temperatures across most regions, according to the National Center for Meteorology (NCM).
The seasonal outlook covering May, June, and July indicates above-average rainfall during the first two months before conditions stabilize in July.
According to the NCM’s seasonal outlook, rainfall patterns will vary over the three-month period, with May and June expected to record above-average precipitation before conditions stabilize in July.
Visual maps indicate that the highest rainfall anomalies will be concentrated in the southwestern regions during May and June, before conditions shift back toward normal patterns in July.
In May, rainfall is forecast across parts of Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, and Makkah, with moderate to heavy intensity that could lead to flash flooding, with the impact expected to extend to parts of Madinah, Hail, Qassim, and the Northern Borders, where rainfall will range from moderate to heavy.
Forecasts of rainfall from May to July (National Center for Meteorology report).
In June, rainfall activity is expected to remain above average particularly over Jazan and Asir, extending into Al-Baha and the highlands of Makkah, including Taif. These areas are forecast to experience moderate to heavy rainfall.
By July, rainfall is projected to return to near-average levels, limited mainly to the southwestern highlands, including Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, and the Taif highlands, with light to moderate intensity.
Temperature trends over the same period indicate a general rise above seasonal norms across most parts of the Kingdom.
The NCM forecasts that average temperatures will exceed normal levels with varying intensity, with probabilities of above-average temperatures reaching up to 80% in some regions and around 65% in others.
The highest increases are expected to reach up to 1.0°C above average in parts of southwestern Makkah, western Al-Baha, western Asir, and northern Jazan.
Expected deviation from the average in mean temperature for the period from May to July (National Center for Meteorology report).
Meanwhile, increases of up to 0.8°C above average are forecast in parts of northwestern Hail, Tabuk, and parts of northern Madinah, with some areas in the far north expected to remain closer to seasonal norms.
Analysis of the report’s graphical data further shows that most regions are expected to experience temperature anomalies ranging between 0.5°C and 1°C above average, while central, northern, and eastern regions are likely to see increases closer to 0.5°C.
No areas are projected to exceed a 1°C rise above seasonal norms, indicating a widespread but moderate warming trend.
The report also highlights that rainfall data is presented in relative terms rather than exact measurements, with classifications based on above-average or near-average levels and intensity ranging from light to heavy.
Source: Saudi Gazette